League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading
Likeliest: Reading win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Milton Keynes Dons31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Reading42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Milton Keynes Dons
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 6 · v Brentford U21 (H)7-1
- Sep 22 · v Crawley Town (H)4-1
- Sep 17 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Peterborough United (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)3-3
Reading
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v Bradford City (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Notts County (H)2-0
- Sep 15 · v Brentford (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Cambridge United (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Milton Keynes Dons | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.