Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:30 · Minnesota United vs St.Louis City
Likeliest: Minnesota United win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Minnesota United37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+2
OursMarket
St.Louis City36%36%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 62% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Minnesota United
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 15 · at Colorado Rapids (A)2-2
- Oct 11 · v Houston Dynamo (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v LA Galaxy (H)2-3
- Sep 13 · at St.Louis City (A)2-4
St.Louis City
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 15 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · v LA Galaxy (H)6-2
- Sep 30 · at New York Red Bulls (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Toronto FC (H)3-1
- Sep 17 · at Colorado Rapids (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Minnesota United | St.Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.