Primera Federación (Spain) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:30 · Mirandés vs Racing de Ferrol
Likeliest: Mirandés win · 57%
A 57% home win. The market says 44%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mirandés57%44%+13
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−1
OursMarket
Racing de Ferrol17%29%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 44% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 39% | 49% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 71% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 56% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 60% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mirandés
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Barakaldo CF (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v Zamora (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · at SD Ponferradina (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v Unionistas de Salamanca CF (H)1-0
- May 31 · at Leganés (A)0-1
Racing de Ferrol
LossWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Unionistas de Salamanca CF (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Fabril (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Pontevedra CF (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at CD Lugo (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Mirandés | Racing de Ferrol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — |
| Clean sheets | 10% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.