Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Sun, Aug 2 · 21:00 · Mirassol vs Grêmio
Likeliest: Mirassol win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 46%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mirassol54%46%+9
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Grêmio20%26%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 47% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 54% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 64% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mirassol
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Jul 29 · v Remo (H)2-1
- Jul 25 · at Vasco da Gama (A)1-1
- Jul 17 · v Grêmio (H)2-1
- May 30 · at Athletico (A)0-1
- May 30 · at Athletico PR (A)0-1
Grêmio
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Jul 30 · v Bolívar (H)0-1
- Jul 26 · v Fluminense (H)1-1
- Jul 23 · at Bolívar (A)2-3
- Jul 17 · at Mirassol (A)1-2
- May 30 · v Corinthians (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Mirassol | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.