Copa Libertadores (South America) · Thu, Aug 13 · 22:00 · Mirassol vs LDU
Likeliest: Mirassol win · 40%
A 32% away win. The market says 18%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mirassol40%55%−15
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
LDU32%18%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 82% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 45% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 76% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mirassol
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 9 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-3
- Aug 5 · at Grêmio (A)0-1
- Aug 2 · v Grêmio (H)1-1
- Jul 29 · v Remo (H)2-1
- Jul 25 · at Vasco da Gama (A)1-1
LDU
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 8 · v Independiente del Valle (H)0-2
- Aug 4 · v Delfín (H)2-1
- Jul 27 · at Barcelona SC (A)1-0
- Jul 23 · at Manta FC (A)1-1
- Jul 18 · v Leones del Norte (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Mirassol | LDU |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.