Serie A (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:30 · Mirassol vs São Paulo
Likeliest: Mirassol win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mirassol41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
São Paulo29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mirassol
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 16 · v Internacional (H)2-0
- Oct 11 · at Bahia (A)0-1
- Oct 7 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Botafogo (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Vitória (H)2-2
São Paulo
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Vitória (H)2-1
- Oct 8 · at Cruzeiro (A)0-2
- Oct 2 · v Santos (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Internacional (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Mirassol | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.