J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 11 · 06:00 · Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-Pulse
Likeliest: Shimizu S-Pulse win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mito Hollyhock32%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Shimizu S-Pulse38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mito Hollyhock
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at Yokohama F. Marinos (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Kawasaki Frontale (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · v Kashima Antlers (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · v Machida Zelvia (H)1-1
Shimizu S-Pulse
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 7 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v JEF United Chiba (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · v FC Tokyo (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Mito Hollyhock | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-5 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.