J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 07:00 · Mito Hollyhock vs Urawa Red Diamonds
Likeliest: Urawa Red Diamonds win · 49%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mito Hollyhock23%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Urawa Red Diamonds49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 52% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mito Hollyhock
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Shimizu S-Pulse (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Yokohama F. Marinos (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Kawasaki Frontale (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · v Kashima Antlers (H)4-2
Urawa Red Diamonds
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-3
- Oct 7 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Tokyo Verdy (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Kashima Antlers (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Mito Hollyhock | Urawa Red Diamonds |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.