Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Mitre vs Godoy Cruz
Likeliest: Godoy Cruz win · 50%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mitre18%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Godoy Cruz50%48%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 32% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mitre
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Deportivo Morón (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Club Atletico Colón (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at San Miguel (A)2-0
- Sep 27 · v San Telmo (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Acassuso (A)0-2
Godoy Cruz
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (H)6-3
- Oct 12 · at All Boys (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Los Andes (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Racing de Córdoba (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Morón (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Mitre | Godoy Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.