Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 10 · 15:30 · Mjällby vs Degerfors IF
Likeliest: Mjällby win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mjällby50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Degerfors IF23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mjällby
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 6 · at FC Trollhättan (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v GAIS (H)0-3
- Sep 16 · at AIK (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at BK Häcken (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Göteborg (H)1-4
Degerfors IF
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v Hammarby (H)0-1
- Sep 14 · at IK Sirius (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Halmstads BK (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at IF Elfsborg (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · at IF Brommapojkarna (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Mjällby | Degerfors IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-8 | 2-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.