Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:30 · Mjällby vs GAIS
Likeliest: GAIS win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mjällby33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
GAIS39%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mjällby
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 16 · at AIK (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at BK Häcken (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Göteborg (H)1-4
- Sep 3 · v Djurgården (H)0-2
- Aug 31 · at Djurgården (A)0-4
GAIS
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 14 · at Djurgården (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v BK Häcken (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · v IF Brommapojkarna (H)4-0
- Aug 27 · at Husqvarna FF (A)7-0
- Aug 23 · at Hammarby (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Mjällby | GAIS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-7 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.