Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:30 · Mjällby vs Hammarby
Likeliest: Hammarby win · 66%
Likely score: 1–2
A 66% away win. The market says 61%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mjällby13%17%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%22%0
OursMarket
Hammarby66%61%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 34% | 39% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 83% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 16% | 22% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mjällby
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Västerås SK (A)0-1
- Oct 15 · v Inter Club d'Escaldes (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Degerfors IF (H)1-1
- Oct 6 · at FC Trollhättan (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v GAIS (H)0-3
Hammarby
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Halmstads BK (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Djurgården (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Degerfors IF (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v IF Brommapojkarna (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Örgryte IS (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Mjällby | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.