Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes
Likeliest: Mjällby win · 74%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mjällby74%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Inter Club d'Escaldes9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mjällby
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Degerfors IF (H)1-1
- Oct 6 · at FC Trollhättan (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v GAIS (H)0-3
- Sep 16 · at AIK (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at BK Häcken (A)1-1
Inter Club d'Escaldes
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Aug 27 · v FC Drita (H)0-0
- Aug 20 · at FC Drita (A)2-2
- Aug 13 · at Flora Tallinn (A)4-0
- Aug 6 · v Flora Tallinn (H)2-0
- Jul 14 · v Lincoln Red Imps (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Mjällby | Inter Club d'Escaldes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.