Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:45 · MKS Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice
Likeliest: MKS Korona Kielce win · 45%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MKS Korona Kielce45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
GKS Katowice29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MKS Korona Kielce
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-6
- Oct 11 · at Pogoń Szczecin (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)3-2
- Sep 15 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Śląsk Wrocław (A)2-1
GKS Katowice
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Pogoń Szczecin (H)0-1
- Oct 12 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-1
- Oct 9 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Cracovia (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Zagłębie Lubin (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | MKS Korona Kielce | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.