Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Sep 19 · 12:45 · MKS Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa
Likeliest: MKS Korona Kielce win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MKS Korona Kielce44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Raków Częstochowa28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MKS Korona Kielce
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 15 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Śląsk Wrocław (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Wisła Kraków (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Wisła Płock (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · v Motor Lublin (H)1-1
Raków Częstochowa
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 15 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)2-3
- Sep 11 · v Motor Lublin (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Lech Poznań (A)0-1
- Sep 3 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-5
| Last 10 games | MKS Korona Kielce | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.