Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:00 · Mladá Boleslav vs FC Zbrojovka Brno
Likeliest: Mladá Boleslav win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mladá Boleslav43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Zbrojovka Brno31%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mladá Boleslav
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 15 · at FK Třinec (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · at FC Slovan Liberec (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Baník Ostrava (H)4-0
- Aug 22 · v 1. FC Slovácko (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at FK Pardubice (A)1-1
FC Zbrojovka Brno
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 16 · at Králův Dvůr (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · v SK Líšeň (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)0-4
- Sep 2 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · v FC Zlín (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Mladá Boleslav | FC Zbrojovka Brno |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.