Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · Mladá Boleslav vs FK Teplice
Likeliest: Mladá Boleslav win · 41%
A 30% draw. The market says 26%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mladá Boleslav41%46%−5
OursMarket
Draw30%26%+4
OursMarket
FK Teplice29%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 74% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 63% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mladá Boleslav
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 14 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v FC Zbrojovka Brno (H)2-0
- Sep 15 · at FK Třinec (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · at FC Slovan Liberec (A)0-3
FK Teplice
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 11 · v SK Sigma Olomouc (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at FC Hradec Králové (A)2-0
- Sep 16 · at FC Silon Táborsko (A)5-0
- Sep 13 · v SK Slavia Praha (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at FC Zlín (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Mladá Boleslav | FK Teplice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.