Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · Modena vs Cesena
Likeliest: Modena win · 64%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Modena64%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Cesena14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Modena
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Carrarese (A)1-2
- Oct 11 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · v Empoli (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Südtirol (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Avellino (H)0-1
Cesena
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Avellino (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Benevento (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · at Juve Stabia (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Cremonese (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Mantova (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Modena | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.