Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Apr 18 · 13:00 · Modena vs Frosinone
Likeliest: Modena win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 38%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Modena43%38%+5
OursMarket
Draw27%28%0
OursMarket
Frosinone30%34%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 56% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 66% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 62% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 53% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Modena
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Apr 14 · at Catanzaro (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · at Südtirol (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · at Bari 1908 (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Mantova (H)2-1
- Mar 13 · v Spezia (H)3-0
Frosinone
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 10 · v Palermo (H)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Calcio Padova (H)2-0
- Mar 22 · at Südtirol (A)3-1
- Mar 18 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Cesena (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Modena | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.