Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Oct 11 · 17:30 · Modena vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Modena win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Modena46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Hellas Verona24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Modena
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 20 · v Empoli (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Südtirol (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Avellino (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at Cremonese (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Benevento (A)2-1
Hellas Verona
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 20 · v L.R. Vicenza (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Benevento (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Arezzo (H)5-0
- Sep 3 · at Cagliari (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Padova (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Modena | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.