Eliteserien (Norway) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:00 · Molde FK vs Aalesunds FK
Likeliest: Molde FK win · 75%
A tight one: we make it 75% for the home win. The market says 72%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Molde FK75%72%+3
OursMarket
Draw13%16%−3
OursMarket
Aalesunds FK13%13%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 87% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 28% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 85% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Molde FK
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 16 · at Trygg/Lade (A)5-0
- Sep 13 · at HamKam (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v KFUM Oslo (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Vålerenga IF (A)4-3
- Aug 16 · v Tromsø IL (H)3-2
Aalesunds FK
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 16 · at Førde (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at KFUM Oslo (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v IK Start (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Viking FK (A)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Vålerenga IF (H)5-5
| Last 10 games | Molde FK | Aalesunds FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 0-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.