Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:15 · Molde FK vs Fredrikstad FK
Likeliest: Molde FK win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Molde FK62%64%−2
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
Fredrikstad FK16%16%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 84% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 36% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Molde FK
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v IK Start (H)6-1
- Oct 11 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Aalesunds FK (H)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Trygg/Lade (A)5-0
- Sep 13 · at HamKam (A)5-1
Fredrikstad FK
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Viking FK (A)2-3
- Oct 11 · v Tromsø IL (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Vålerenga IF (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Stjørdals/Blink (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Sarpsborg 08 (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Molde FK | Fredrikstad FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.