Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · Molde FK vs IK Start
Likeliest: Molde FK win · 71%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Molde FK71%68%+3
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−2
OursMarket
IK Start14%15%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 32% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Molde FK
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Aalesunds FK (H)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Trygg/Lade (A)5-0
- Sep 13 · at HamKam (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v KFUM Oslo (H)2-0
IK Start
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v HamKam (H)2-4
- Oct 6 · at Raufoss (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · at Vindbjart (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · v SK Brann (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Molde FK | IK Start |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 3-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.