UEFA Nations League · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:45 · Moldova vs Slovakia
Likeliest: Slovakia win · 64%
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Moldova14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Slovakia64%60%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 36% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 23% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Moldova
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 2 · at Kazakhstan (A)2-1
- Sep 29 · v Faroe Islands (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Slovakia (A)0-2
- Jun 9 · at Armenia (A)1-1
- Jun 5 · v Bulgaria (H)2-2
Slovakia
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 2 · at Faroe Islands (A)1-1
- Sep 29 · v Kazakhstan (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Moldova (H)2-0
- Jun 5 · v Montenegro (H)2-2
- Jun 1 · v Malta (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Moldova | Slovakia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.