Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 28 · 18:00 · Monaco vs Angers SCO
Likeliest: Monaco win · 60%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco60%65%−5
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Angers SCO19%14%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 35% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 82% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Feb 25 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
- Feb 21 · at Lens (A)3-2
- Feb 17 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-3
- Feb 13 · v Nantes (H)3-1
- Feb 8 · at Nice (A)0-0
Angers SCO
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Feb 15 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Metz (H)1-0
- Jan 25 · at Paris (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.