Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 19 · 13:00 · Monaco vs Auxerre
Likeliest: Monaco win · 47%
A 28% away win. The market says 17%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco47%61%−14
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+4
OursMarket
Auxerre28%17%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 83% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 39% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 78% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Apr 10 · at Paris (A)1-4
- Apr 5 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-1
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · v Brest (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)3-1
Auxerre
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Apr 11 · v Nantes (H)0-0
- Apr 5 · at Le Havre (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Brest (H)3-0
- Mar 13 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Strasbourg (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.