Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Mar 14 · 20:05 · Monaco vs Brest
Likeliest: Monaco win · 55%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 57%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco55%57%−2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Brest23%20%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 43% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 74% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 6 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · v Angers SCO (H)2-0
- Feb 25 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
- Feb 21 · at Lens (A)3-2
- Feb 17 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-3
Brest
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 8 · v Le Havre (H)2-0
- Mar 1 · at Metz (A)1-0
- Feb 20 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
- Feb 14 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Lorient (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.