Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Nov 8 · 20:05 · Monaco vs Lens
Likeliest: Monaco win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Monaco53%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Lens21%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Nov 4 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-0
- Nov 1 · v Paris (H)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Nantes (A)5-3
- Oct 25 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
- Oct 22 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-0
Lens
WinWinWinLossWin
- Nov 2 · v Lorient (H)3-0
- Oct 29 · at Metz (A)0-2
- Oct 25 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-1
- Oct 19 · v Paris (H)2-1
- Oct 4 · at Auxerre (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.