Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 10 · 19:00 · Monaco vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: Monaco win · 38%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%26%0
OursMarket
LOSC Lille37%35%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 59% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 62% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 53% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- May 2 · at Metz (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Toulouse (A)2-2
- Apr 19 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
- Apr 10 · at Paris (A)1-4
- Apr 5 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-1
LOSC Lille
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- May 3 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at Paris (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Nice (H)0-0
- Apr 12 · at Toulouse (A)4-0
- Apr 4 · v Lens (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Monaco | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.