Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Feb 13 · 20:05 · Monaco vs Nantes
Likeliest: Monaco win · 58%
A 20% away win. The market says 15%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco58%64%−6
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Nantes20%15%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 85% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 36% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 81% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Feb 8 · at Nice (A)0-0
- Feb 5 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · v Rennes (H)4-0
- Jan 28 · v Juventus (H)0-0
- Jan 24 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
Nantes
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 7 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-1
- Jan 31 · at Lorient (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Nice (H)1-4
- Jan 18 · v Paris (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · v Nice (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.