Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Jan 3 · 16:00 · Monaco vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Monaco win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 45%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco63%45%+17
OursMarket
Draw20%26%−5
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais17%29%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 71% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 55% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 61% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
WinLossWinLossWin
- Dec 21 · at Auxerre (A)2-1
- Dec 14 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-1
- Dec 9 · v Galatasaray (H)1-0
- Dec 5 · at Brest (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-0
Olympique Lyonnais
WinLossWinWinWin
- Dec 21 · v Saint-Cyr Collonges (H)3-0
- Dec 14 · v Le Havre (H)1-0
- Dec 11 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Lorient (A)0-1
- Nov 30 · v Nantes (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.