Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 5 · 18:45 · Monaco vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Monaco win · 44%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille32%29%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 60% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · v Brest (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · v Angers SCO (H)2-0
- Feb 25 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
Olympique Marseille
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-2
- Mar 13 · v Auxerre (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Mar 1 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-2
- Feb 20 · at Brest (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.