Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Nov 29 · 16:00 · Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 68%
A 68% away win. The market says 60%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco14%19%−5
OursMarket
Draw18%21%−3
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain68%60%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 32% | 40% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 81% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 17% | 24% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Nov 26 · at Pafos FC (A)2-2
- Nov 22 · at Rennes (A)1-4
- Nov 8 · v Lens (H)1-4
- Nov 4 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-0
- Nov 1 · v Paris (H)0-1
Paris Saint Germain
WinLossWinWinWin
- Nov 26 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)5-3
- Nov 22 · v Le Havre (H)3-0
- Nov 9 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)3-2
- Nov 4 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Nov 1 · v Nice (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.