Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Feb 17 · 20:00 · Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Monaco win · 42%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco42%16%+26
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain35%64%−29
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 36% | +29 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 84% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 20% | +35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 13 · v Nantes (H)3-1
- Feb 8 · at Nice (A)0-0
- Feb 5 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · v Rennes (H)4-0
- Jan 28 · v Juventus (H)0-0
Paris Saint Germain
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Feb 13 · at Rennes (A)1-3
- Feb 8 · v Olympique Marseille (H)5-0
- Feb 1 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Jan 28 · v Newcastle United (H)1-1
- Jan 23 · at Auxerre (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.