Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Jan 31 · 20:05 · Monaco vs Rennes
Likeliest: Monaco win · 51%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 63%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monaco51%47%+4
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−2
OursMarket
Rennes27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 63% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 63% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monaco
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Jan 28 · v Juventus (H)0-0
- Jan 24 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Jan 20 · at Real Madrid (A)1-6
- Jan 16 · v Lorient (H)1-3
- Jan 10 · at Orléans (A)3-1
Rennes
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Jan 24 · v Lorient (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at US Chantilly (A)3-1
- Jan 3 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-0
- Dec 21 · v Les Sables (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Monaco | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.