J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 04:00 · Montedio Yamagata vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Likeliest: Montedio Yamagata win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montedio Yamagata40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montedio Yamagata
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Oita Trinita (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Sagan Tosu (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Kataller Toyama (H)0-2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Blaublitz Akita (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Iwaki FC (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Oita Trinita (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Montedio Yamagata | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 0-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.