J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 25 · 05:00 · Montedio Yamagata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Likeliest: Montedio Yamagata win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Montedio Yamagata36%——
OursMarket
Draw30%——
OursMarket
Tegevajaro Miyazaki34%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montedio Yamagata
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Oita Trinita (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Sagan Tosu (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Kataller Toyama (H)0-2
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Kataller Toyama (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)0-2
- Oct 4 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Montedio Yamagata | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 1-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.