J2 League (Japan) · Tue, Nov 3 · 05:00 · Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis
Likeliest: Tokushima Vortis win · 34%
Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 0–0 12% · 0–1 10%
A tight one: we make it 34% for the away win. The market says 34%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montedio Yamagata34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Tokushima Vortis34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montedio Yamagata
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 31 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)2-1
- Oct 25 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)0-2
- Oct 21 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)0-2
- Oct 17 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)0-1
Tokushima Vortis
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 31 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-1
- Oct 24 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)1-0
- Oct 21 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)0-1
- Oct 17 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v FC Imabari (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Montedio Yamagata | Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-5 | 2-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.