J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 11 · 04:05 · Montedio Yamagata vs Vegalta Sendai
Likeliest: Vegalta Sendai win · 49%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montedio Yamagata24%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Vegalta Sendai49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montedio Yamagata
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Oita Trinita (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Sagan Tosu (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Kataller Toyama (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Albirex Niigata (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)1-2
Vegalta Sendai
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 4 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Iwaki FC (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Tochigi City FC (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Montedio Yamagata | Vegalta Sendai |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 4-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.