UEFA Nations League · Mon, Oct 5 · 18:45 · Montenegro vs Armenia
Likeliest: Montenegro win · 51%
A 30% draw. The market says 24%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montenegro51%59%−8
OursMarket
Draw30%24%+5
OursMarket
Armenia19%17%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 83% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 41% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 76% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 78% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montenegro
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 2 · at Latvia (A)2-1
- Sep 28 · at Armenia (A)3-2
- Sep 25 · v Cyprus (H)0-0
- Jun 5 · at Slovakia (A)2-2
- Jun 1 · at Bulgaria (A)1-0
Armenia
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 2 · at Cyprus (A)0-2
- Sep 28 · v Montenegro (H)2-3
- Sep 25 · v Latvia (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · v Moldova (H)1-1
- Jun 6 · v Kazakhstan (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Montenegro | Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.