USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 02:00 · Monterey Bay FC vs Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Likeliest: Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC win · 55%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monterey Bay FC20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC55%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monterey Bay FC
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at New Mexico United (A)1-3
- Oct 4 · at Orange County SC (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Lexington SC (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Charleston Battery (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Phoenix Rising FC (H)1-1
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
WinDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · at Sacramento Republic FC (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Oakland Roots SC (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v New Mexico United (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · v San Antonio FC (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Monterey Bay FC | Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-2 | 4-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.