USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 02:00 · Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights
Likeliest: Las Vegas Lights win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Monterey Bay FC34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Las Vegas Lights39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 65% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Monterey Bay FC
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at New Mexico United (A)1-3
- Oct 4 · at Orange County SC (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Lexington SC (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Charleston Battery (A)0-1
Las Vegas Lights
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Lexington SC (H)3-5
- Oct 11 · at Phoenix Rising FC (A)2-3
- Oct 4 · v San Antonio FC (H)1-0
- Oct 1 · at Sacramento Republic FC (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Hartford Athletic (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Monterey Bay FC | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-3 | 5-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.