Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Oct 21 · 22:00 · Montevideo City Torque vs Atlético Mineiro
Likeliest: Atlético Mineiro win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montevideo City Torque32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Atlético Mineiro39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montevideo City Torque
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Albion FC (A)1-2
- Oct 14 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)0-3
- Oct 9 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Oct 5 · at Nacional (A)0-2
- Sep 30 · v Peñarol (H)1-1
Atlético Mineiro
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Coritiba (H)1-0
- Oct 14 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · v Santos (H)2-1
- Oct 8 · at Athletico (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Montevideo City Torque | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.