Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Montevideo City Torque vs Cerro
Likeliest: Montevideo City Torque win · 65%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montevideo City Torque65%62%+3
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
Cerro13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montevideo City Torque
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Albion FC (A)1-2
- Oct 14 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)0-3
- Oct 9 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Oct 5 · at Nacional (A)0-2
- Sep 30 · v Peñarol (H)1-1
Cerro
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 16 · v Cerro Largo (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Defensor Sporting (A)0-0
- Oct 4 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)0-2
- Sep 27 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Peñarol (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Montevideo City Torque | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.