Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Fri, Sep 18 · 00:30 · Montevideo City Torque vs Cienciano
Likeliest: Montevideo City Torque win · 62%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montevideo City Torque62%60%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Cienciano17%18%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montevideo City Torque
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 14 · v Liverpool UY (H)3-1
- Sep 11 · at Cienciano (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Defensor Sporting (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)5-1
Cienciano
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 11 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FC Cajamarca (A)5-2
- Aug 31 · v Cusco FC (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Sport Boys (A)1-5
- Aug 21 · at Botafogo (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Montevideo City Torque | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.