Primera Division (Uruguay) · Fri, Oct 9 · 20:00 · Montevideo City Torque vs Danubio
Likeliest: Montevideo City Torque win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montevideo City Torque46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Danubio26%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montevideo City Torque
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 5 · at Nacional (A)0-2
- Sep 30 · v Peñarol (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)0-2
- Sep 21 · at Central Español (A)4-1
- Sep 18 · v Cienciano (H)3-0
Danubio
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 4 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Defensor Sporting (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Peñarol (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Montevideo City Torque | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.