Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Thu, Aug 20 · 00:30 · Montevideo City Torque vs Tigre
Likeliest: Montevideo City Torque win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 35%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montevideo City Torque47%35%+13
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Tigre25%36%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 46% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 64% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 65% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 49% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montevideo City Torque
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 15 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)1-0
- Aug 12 · at Tigre (A)0-0
- Jul 31 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)0-2
- Jul 24 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Jul 11 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)3-1
Tigre
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Aug 15 · at Aldosivi (A)0-0
- Aug 12 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)0-0
- Aug 8 · v River Plate (H)1-0
- Aug 6 · v Belgrano (H)0-0
- Aug 1 · at Racing Club (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Montevideo City Torque | Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.