Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 10 · 18:00 · Montevideo Wanderers vs Boston River
Likeliest: Montevideo Wanderers win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montevideo Wanderers40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Boston River31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montevideo Wanderers
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 4 · at Cerro (A)2-0
- Sep 28 · v Albion FC (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Danubio (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Nacional (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)0-2
Boston River
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 4 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Peñarol (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Progreso (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Racing de Montevideo (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · at Liverpool UY (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Montevideo Wanderers | Boston River |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.