Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:00 · Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso
Likeliest: Montevideo Wanderers win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montevideo Wanderers43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Progreso28%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montevideo Wanderers
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Racing de Montevideo (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Boston River (H)1-3
- Oct 4 · at Cerro (A)2-0
- Sep 28 · v Albion FC (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Danubio (A)1-1
Progreso
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Peñarol (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · at Liverpool UY (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v Racing de Montevideo (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Boston River (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Montevideo Wanderers | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.