Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, May 2 · 18:00 · Montpellier vs Clermont
Likeliest: Montpellier win · 51%
A 26% away win. The market says 20%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Montpellier51%54%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Clermont26%20%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 80% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 73% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Montpellier
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 24 · at Amiens SC (A)2-0
- Apr 17 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)2-1
- Apr 10 · at Annecy (A)0-0
- Apr 4 · v Troyes (H)2-2
- Mar 20 · at Pau (A)0-0
Clermont
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Apr 24 · v Bastia (H)1-1
- Apr 17 · at Le Mans (A)0-1
- Apr 10 · v Nancy (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)2-2
- Mar 20 · v Red Star (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Montpellier | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.